Texans are being warned by the organization responsible for the reliability of the Texas electricity grid, ERCOT, that the state will fall short of power next summer. This is a result of the increasing demand for electricity in the Lone Star State coupled with the loss of several plants that are scheduled to go off-line in the coming year.
2011 was a particularly challenging year for ERCOT. After losing some 7,000 MW of electricity generation capacity the grid strained to handle unprecedented demand for electricity. This resulted in rolling blackouts during a severe winter events in February.
ERCOT is taking steps to try to reduce the chances of a repeat of February 2011 when the grid was unable to meet demand and was forced to implement targeted blackouts. Working with the PUC they are seeking to update rules to allow for greater participation of contingent electricity sources in the event of an electricity demand emergency.
ERCOT is asking transmission operators within the state for a thorough review of all their new electricity generation projects. Citing the new environmental rules among other factors they want to validate assumptions on planned new capacity expected to come online in the next year. When power reserve margins are reduced dramatically as they have been in Texas it becomes all the more difficult to keep the system out of trouble. This makes go-live dates very important for planning.
ERCOT is being squeezed from all directions right now. The Texas electricity grid is being impacted by unusual weather conditions, new EPA rules, and a challenging economic background. Texas over the last year experienced a string of weather events not seen before. Severe winter ice storms along with frigid temperatures early in the year caused Texans to draw electricity from the grid at record levels to stay warm. The grid was pushed to the brink of capacity resulting in controlled blackouts in much of the state as ERCOT struggled to maintain the integrity of the system. Cheap electricity in Houston and elsewhere in the State have resulted in fewer investments in new power plants from Texas electricity providers.
Record high temperatures in the summer prompted pleas from grid operators that consumers voluntarily conserve energy. In addition to the extreme temperatures, 2011 is also notable for the continuation of an historic drought in Texas as wells as unrelenting wildfires.
The timing of the harsh barrage of natural disasters is somewhat ironic considering that while dealing with these the Texas electricity system is also starting to realize the impact of recent new EPA regulations. The true impact of the new rules has been debated for a while but the time is rapidly approaching when the theoretical impact is giving way to the real world impact as electricity plants that are unable to meet the new rules are closing down at precisely the time when Texas is struggling to generate enough electricity to meet demand. This is far from just a Texas problem. Concerns about how the rules will affect the reliability of the North American grid are being raised by the very group who is in charge of maintaining the reliability of the grid, NERC. The logistics of closing down hundreds of plants even temporarily over a short time span are problematic.